Having been landed with a rather large extra bill for the cost of E.U. membership of £1.7 billion [or about £27 per UK resident] due on the 1st December, the consequences of changes in statistical methodology are prominent in the news.
The UK’s Office for National Statistics submits figures used to calculate the Gross National Income to Eurostat. These figures were agreed; they upwardly revised the estimate of the GNI. This upwards revision in the GNI is directly associated with the upwards revision in the bill. A guide to what general areas were under revision is here.
One interesting element that added to the upwards figure was the addition of illegal activities into the accounts. Included in this aspect was a calculation of £5.3 billion accounted for by prostitution. The breakdown of this figure is explained well by Jolyon here: [note that this was published well before the current payment demand was made public and it also links to a commentary about how the Irish Central Statistics Office approached the same problem.]… basically, it boils down to estimates being based on a biased rather than representative sample and no-one really stopping to think about what the total figure would mean.
The surprise shown by politicians about the state of affairs shows as obvious the lack of consideration given to the consequences of changes in statistical methodology. What can seem like minor adjustments can have major consequences.
To be decided 